Trade War Escalation: Impact on Markets, Reshoring, Private Equity Valuations, and the Closing IPO Window

Capital Call #58

This is your curated resource on how future dominant companies are being funded across the evolving financial landscape. We are Willy Braun, Nicolas Colin and Vincent Touati-Tomas.

Tariff tensions are rippling through global private equity markets, shaking investor confidence and reshaping the outlook for exits. While early-stage funding remains strong, the path to IPO is narrowing, with public market volatility and rising revenue thresholds pushing liquidity further out of reach. Across sectors—from climate tech to fintech, hardware to Web3—founders and investors are grappling with supply chain disruptions, cost pressures, and the wider uncertainties of a shifting geopolitical landscape. Dive deeper into the perspectives and analysis through the curated selection below. Follow us on LinkedIn: Capital Call.

Joe Stephenson 🇬🇧 notes that while some sub-sectors like telecoms may be insulated, others, including fintech and hardware, could face significant challenges due to increased costs and supply chain issues: How will Trump’s tariffs affect tech’s sub-sectors? (April 2025).

Anshul Dhir 🇮🇳 argues that Web3 ventures were caught off guard by macroeconomic shocks they were never designed to hedge against, and calls for greater capital discipline and geopolitical awareness in founder strategy: Crypto vs. Tariffs: Why Trump’s Tariffs Shook Web 3.0 (April 2025).

Howard Marks 🇺🇸 reflects on the radical uncertainty gripping markets, noting that tariff escalations are just one of several interconnected macro shocks: Nobody Knows — Yet Again (April 2025).

For Sifted, Mehmet Atici 🇹🇷, Benjamin Erhart 🇩🇪, Christian Meermann 🇩🇪, William McQuillan 🇮🇪, Alex Stöckl 🇨🇭 discuss ‘tariffs hurting confidence’ among European VC circles. Despite surging investment in early-stage startups, the path to a public exit looks rocky: Europe's VCs weigh Trump tariffs impact: 'They're bad for everyone' (April 2025—paywall).

For his newsletter Newcomer, Eric Newcomer 🇺🇸 interviews many US investors (incl. Vinod Khosla 🇺🇸, Dave McClure 🇺🇸, Roy Bahat 🇺🇸) warning that the lingering IPO drought could stretch well beyond 2025, with no meaningful market thaw until 2026. Delayed liquidity also raises concerns for LP returns: How VCs Are Navigating the Tariff-Driven Stock Market (April 2025).

For Crunchbase, Don Butler 🇺🇸notes an abundance of venture capital against dwindling IPO volumes since 2021’s listing bonanza. While the threshold to go public might have been $150 million to $200 million of annual recurring revenue, that has risen to about $400 million today: Tariffs, Volatility And The Startup Exit Dilemma (April 2025).

Tom Goldsmith 🇨🇦 urges strategic policy responses: pension-backed funding, countercyclical innovation investment, and support for global market expansion among many to support the Canadians market: Beyond Tariffs: Considering the Impacts of the Trade War on Innovative Companies (April 2025).

Ruben Dominguez Ibar 🇪🇸 examines the impact on hardware, SaaS, and AI companies, highlighting increased costs, supply chain disruptions, and strategic shifts in go-to-market plans: How the Tariff Surge Is Rewriting the Playbook for Global Tech Startups (April 2025).

Julia Devos 🇫🇷 warns that US tariffs are sending a chill through the climate tech space, raising the cost of scaling green hardware startups and complicating cross-border collaborations. A timely alarm for climate founders navigating industrial policy headwinds: How Trump’s Tariffs Impact the Climate Tech Sector (April 2025).

Kurt S. Altrichter 🇺🇸 offers a comprehensive analysis of the current trade tensions with those from 2018–2020, highlighting the broader reach and intensified geopolitical ramifications: The Investor Playbook for Trade War 2.0 (March 2025).

Tom Friedman 🇺🇸's recent interview with Ezra Klein 🇺🇸 offers investors a contrarian view on US-China relations. Fresh from a China visit, Friedman highlights how America's erratic tariff policies risk its financial dominance without achieving manufacturing reshoring goals. His observations on China's manufacturing evolution and widely digitised economy provide essential context for investors navigating trade tensions and seeking opportunities amid increasing economic bifurcation: Why Trump Could Lose His Trade War With China (audio and transcript, April 2025).

A recent edition of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast features Impulse Labs founder Sam D'Amico 🇺🇸 discussing the true barriers to manufacturing reshoring. Beyond labour costs, D'Amico highlights complex supply chain coordination, local permitting challenges, and NIMBY politics in talent-rich areas as key obstacles. For investors evaluating reshoring plays, this firsthand perspective explains why tariffs alone cannot solve the West’s manufacturing challenges: What an American Stove Maker Wants You to Know About US Manufacturing (April 2025).

Aaron Slodov 🇺🇸 explains how the doom loop of financial engineering and offshoring led the US to cede vital production capabilities for the sake of quarterly earnings. Now, with geopolitical tension, supply chain fragility, and new technologies converging, he argues this is America’s industrial venture moment: Rewiring Silicon Valley for the World of Atoms (March 2025).

• Mehmet Atici 🇹🇷| Managing Partner, Bek Ventures | Linkedin

• Kurt S. Altrichter 🇺🇸 | Founder & President, Ivory Hill | Linkedin

• Roy Bahat 🇺🇸 | Head, Bloomberg Beta | Linkedin

• Don Butler 🇺🇸 | Managing Director, Thomvest Ventures | Linkedin

• Anshul Dhir 🇮🇳 | Founder & CEO, Pivot | Linkedin

• Julia Devos 🇫🇷 | Head of the New Champions Community, World Economic Forum | Linkedin

• Ruben Dominguez Ibar 🇪🇸 | Investment Manager, Itnig | Linkedin

• Sam D’Amico 🇺🇸 | Founder & CEO, Impulse | Linkedin

• Benjamin Erhart 🇩🇪 | General Partner, UVC Partners | Linkedin

• Tom Friedman 🇺🇸 | Columnist, The New York Times | Linkedin

• Tom Goldsmith 🇨🇦 | Founder & Principal, Orbit Policy | Linkedin

• Vinod Khosla 🇺🇸 | Founder, Khosla Ventures | Linkedin

• Ezra Klein 🇺🇸 | Columnist, The New York Times | Linkedin

• Howard Marks 🇺🇸 | Co-Chairman, Oaktree Capital Management | LinkedIn

• Dave McClure 🇺🇸 Founder, Practical Venture Capital, 500 Startups Linkedin

• William McQuillan 🇮🇪 | Partner, Frontline Ventures | LinkedIn

• Christian Meermann 🇩🇪| Founding Partner, Cherry Ventures Linkedin

• Eric Newcomer 🇺🇸 | Founder, Newcomer | LinkedIn

• Aaron Slodov 🇺🇸 | Founder & CEO, Atomic Industries | LinkedIn

• Joe Stephenson 🇬🇧 | CEO, Anaphite | Linkedin

• Alex Stöckl 🇨🇭 Partner, Founderful | LinkedIn